This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I won my first chair into it a couple weeks back and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $25k prize, then I will probably take a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really are no money game guards this week for me personally but I moved with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so that I enjoy the floor she brings to the table. In addition, I believe she wins the fight and I believe she will be the fighter heading for takedowns. I don’t know how high her ceiling is in money games it does not really matter a lot since we don’t have to hit 1st place in a double-up. I would expect about 10x from Yana in a choice win and I’ll take that day in my cash games.
GPP play of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka struggles tend to score highly because there are a great deal of scrambles and all the grappling improvements really add up. I anticipate this is a really fun battle, but it should be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I’m always looking for no less than 10x in my fighters and also at $8.3k I would be amazed if Smolka didn’t get that with a triumph. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point loss to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP play here and when he wins I’d anticipate near 100 DK points.
Underdog drama of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
For a struggle that I expect to stay standing, I have quite a lot of interest in this struggle. I think it will be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is also the mid-range fight of the week, so that I think a KO from guy would have a fantastic opportunity to set them on the perfect lineup. I enjoy it even more because I’m choosing the underdog to acquire the knockout and that I expect Millender to be the higher owned fighter. I will have this fight in more than half my lineups, but I will most likely have at least twice the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I think it is a much better GPP struggle than it is for money games, but I think dos Santos is currently in play for cash since he is an underdog and that I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, but I’ll have a fantastic amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at the wages and that I really don’t see that happening. When he wins a definite 30-27 conclusion, he then probably scores mid 70’s and at his price tag that will not win anybody a GPP. I don’t think he moves for takedowns in this matchup and I think he uses his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he can move for takedowns then I do not see him filing Moraes. So, it has to be a KO out of him to cover off that wages and I am not willing to take that risk with my cash. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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