This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50-100 entrances at that $25k decoration, then I will likely have a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this fight goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking a guillotine. Other than that, I believe we’ve got a fairly safe win here using Roberts and that’s precisely what I am looking for. I need the wins that are safer in cash and I will worry about who’s going to score the highest in GPPs. I believe we could get away from him in the GPPs in his price because if he sets up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win 25k. It helps us triumph in cash games though and I would be surprised if he had a low scoring win here. I believe he’s good for 80-100 points here and I am totally okay with this in my cash lineup.
GPP play of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP play of this week and he’s the greatest ITD chances on the card in -222. This is a set up struggle for him to receive a knockout and I believe that is quite likely going to happen in the first round. That should put Hardy over 100 things and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be one of my top plays of the week, but he’s GPP only for me. We can not trust him enough for money games, so that’s the reason why I like Roberts more in that format. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the very best lineup and even with higher ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he gets the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is strung in -130 and that’s too good for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog drama of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change once they’re released. We get Teixeira here for $400 less costly than Cutelaba and he is preferred to get the win. I also believe he can win in the 1st round with a submission and score over 90 points. That would give him a fantastic shot at being to the perfect lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this fight in GPPs because I don’t expect it to go all 3 rounds, but value on Teixeira is exactly what I enjoy the most and we need to own”underdogs” within our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I believe the obvious path to success for Glover is on the ground and that’s what I anticipate his game must be. I like him to find a submission win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be one of my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I know people were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a strong fade too… But I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I have zero lineups including her. Generally, Esparza is a good wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling in her very best interest against Jandiroba and I think she uses her wrestling in defense to try and keep this fight on the feet. All the threat is on the floor in this matchup and Carla gets the boxing of the two. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I’d guess it sets up around ~60 DK points. That is not going to reduce it at $8.2k so that I just don’t see how she ends up on the 25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that is why she’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 69-44 to get +224.83u (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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