Can this get any simpler? Based on Bleacher Report’s expert NFL analysts are currently faring this year, it certainly can’t get much harder.
Picking every game, Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport and Brent Sobleski had another challenging streak in Week 12, dropping their album that is joint to 251-259-18. Individually and as a team, here is the damage through 12 weeks (last week’s records in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus picks: 83-87-6 (7-8)
Together with December loomingwe asked longtime sports gambling advisor Dave Tuley when there could be some light at the end of the tunnel for the betting public or if the sportsbooks will continue to benefit from bigger samples late in the season.
Tuley gave us some hope, but not sufficient to get.
“There was a time under a dozen years back where I had a bunch of years in a row where I just killed it the next half of the year and in December,” he said. “At the moment, I felt like it was just the time of year when the good teams were being overrated and the terrible teams were being underrated, and with parity exactly what it was, the underdogs were doing a whole lot better at the moment.”
But Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have encountered benefits that are significant lately Decembers. “As much as bettors want to think that we are becoming smarter the more people see these teams play,” he said,”clearly the oddsmakers are seeing the very same things we are, and they are adjusting and making it tough also.”
But he believes it is possible to pick out lines which were exaggerated by midseason slumps. In particular, he pointed at the 7.5-point spread in favor of this New Orleans Saints in a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that line, oddsmakers are indicating the Saints will be preferred by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were at New Orleans, which will appear high considering that the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning series.
“That’s [a reflection of] how the Saints have been enjoying,” Tuley said. “For the books to balance their actions, they have to put it at the number.”
It’s something to keep in mind as we enter the 2018 season’s final month. It may not save your season but any guidance helps if you’ve been after us all year.
Here is what Gagnon, Davenport and Sobleski are considering heading to the first slate in two or more months.
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